Ian Miles & Michael Keenan (PREST) and Jari Kaivo-oja (FFRC)
The Handbook was produced for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (EFL).
Chapter 1 Introduction outlines the structure of the Handbook and its mission.
Chapter 2 Foresight in the Knowledge Society considers questions arising in the context of the Knowledge Society, and the relevance and scope for Foresight work in this context. It supplies definitions of, and perspectives on, "Knowledge Society" and "Foresight".
Chapter 3 Preparing for Knowledge Society Foresight - Main Methods and Issues examines the practical issues involved in preparing for Knowledge Society Foresight (KSF), explaining what major decisions will need to be made and what methods can be brought to bear.
Chapter 4 Approaches to Forecasting for Knowledge Society Foresight outlines the forecasting methods in that may be used in KSF, both those based on eliciting evidence from experts and those more reliant on statistical or mathematical analysis.
Chapter 5 Conducting Knowledge Society Foresight –Generating Strategic Intelligence examines a broader set of approaches to generating strategic intelligence, focusing especially on the work of panels, expert groups and workshops, and the resources required to support these, as forecasting is only one element of Foresight.
Chapter 6 Scenarios in Knowledge Society Foresight examines in detail Multiple Scenario Analysis and Scenario Workshops.
Chapter 7 Using Knowledge Society Foresight – Planning and Action looks at the output and deliverables that KSF should yield, and the ways these can inform decision-making, as all these approaches to generating Foresight need to be tied to action.
Chapter 8 Building on Knowledge Society Foresight – Evaluating Outcomes and Developing Foresight Capacity concerns further steps in evaluating and institutionalising KSF
Chapter 9 Concluding remarks wraps up the Handbook
Annex A : Foundations of Futures and Foresight Research
Annex B: Seeking for Foresight intelligence: Knowledge management challenges and tools in Foresight research
Annex C: Technological determinism and the critical role of social fabric in knowledge society
The Handbook is neither an essay on KSF nor is it simply a toolkit of ways we can think about long-term futures. It is a guide to Foresight and to making decisions to undertake activity in the field. It is illustrated with some examples drawn from relevant activities around the world, while a series of Annexes provide more discussion, essays and resource materials for those wishing to pursue matters more deeply.
- Lot of elements for forecasting methods, including trends extrapolation & modelling (chap 4)
- What is Genius Forecasting? How can it be used? (chap. 4.1b)
- Evaluating (chap 8)
- Institutionalising (chap 8)
- Download the handbook in pdf format [~1.5Mb] [http://foretech.online.bg/docs/EFL_Handbook_October.pdf]